Unionist Unity?

Michael Grey
Padraig Pearse Ógra Shinn Féin
South Down

Not for the first time the political leadership of the North’s two main Unionist factions have once again risen the ghost of Unionist unity. Previous occasions have included the notorious Unionist Worker’s Strike of the 1970s and the Unionist voting pact that followed the signing of the Anglo-Irish Agreement. There is a fantastic book I remember reading called ‘How To Get Anyone To Do Anything - And Never Be Unsuccessful Again’. The book is aimed at business people and spends most of its time talking about body language and how to manipulate it to your own advantage (One section of how to shake hands was especially impressive).

Another interesting point was focused on how to get work colleagues united, focussed and diligent employees. The trick was to create or centre focus upon an outside enemy. This in turn would draw attention away from internal disagreements and focus everyone towards the real enemy on the outside.

Sinn Féin

For Unionists that enemy is us, and our continued growth and expansion in the Six Counties. Unionism is facing a nightmare: Unionist division + united Nationalism = Sinn Féin as the largest party in the North, a massive physiological blow for them, a moral boast for us. Of course we know that power wise there is no difference between the status of ‘First Minister’ and ‘Deputy First Minister’ they are both equal. But Unionists don’t think like that. All Unionism sees is the real possibility of Sinn Féin, a proud Irish Republican party dedicated to the ending of partition, emerging as the largest party in the North - think of the headlines and symbolism. Think of Unionism at the last European election...

TUV

Assuming that this happens and I suspect it might, raising the flag of Unionist unity is a stroke of genius by Peter Robinson, this is the torpedo that will blow Jim Allister and the TUV out of the water. By sidelining Allister and creating a pact with their less bitter rivals the Ulster Unionists. (coupled with the Sinn Féin ‘boogie man’) the DUP hope they can draw Unionist attention away from Iris, Peter and their finances, as well as dealing Allister a bitter blow. If the TUV fail to perform in this Westminster election, it will severely weaken them and may allow the DUP breathing space to rally and finish them off.

Electoral Implications
But there is another side to this, Unionist Unity has never worked, had it, we would only have one Unionist party in opposition to us. This is a cry of desperation, Unionist unity is a smokescreen for weakness. The DUP are in trouble, The TUV and Ulster Unionists are on the rise, a split in the Unionist vote would not only see Republicans and Nationalists hold onto their current number of seats, but it also opens up the possibility of two more gains at MP level. North Belfast and Upper Bann, thanks to demographic changes, these constituencies but in particular North Belfast are on the verge of becoming Nationalist majority.

Image of the 1983 Westminster election results

Few people realise that at the last Assembly election Sinn Féin gained two seats at the expense of Unionism, South Antrim and West Belfast. Even fewer people realise that Sinn Féin came within a whisper of gaining a second seat in Upper Bann. Add this to the SDLP seat and Upper Bann changes from a Unionist majority constituency to one that is even. Furthermore in South Down it was a tussle to see if Sinn Féin, the SDLP or UUP would take the final seat, Unionism will not hold onto that seat come the next election, leaving them with one out of six.

In Addition according to the SDLP, they could make gains (at Assembly level) in East Antrim and Strangford, both at the expense of Unionism. The potential a chairde, is a Republican/nationalist gain of 5 assembly (or even six) seats in a 10 year period. Imagine the implications if, at the next Assembly election Unionism was divided three ways. Not only would these combined gains be made, but the potential is there for more.

It is for these exact reasons why the leadership of the UUP and DUP have decided to flaunt ‘Unionist unity’ once again. Unionists have resorted to old habits and will use fear to mobilise their supporters. The possibility of a snap Assembly election also filters into this. Robinson and Co. know that if Sinn Féin walk over DUP procrastination over policing and justice, the DUP will be slaughtered at the polls by Allister, that is unless, they can agree on a Unionist pact. The question is, will the Ulster Unionists go for it.

The answer for us is to be vigilant and carefully watch this space.