Unionism and unity are two words that you would not normally put together. But the idea of a ‘united’ Unionism has once again emerged with Unionist leaders including Peter Robinson suggesting that a closer working relationship between the two Unionist parties could reap electoral benefits. Ian Paisley has went further, stating that he would look forward to the day when there would be one single united Unionist party. I find these overtures quite odd considering the fact that absolute hatred exists between both parties, to say that they dislike each other is an understatement, disdain and animosity are words that would reflect more, the true nature of their relationship.
Media reports surrounding the issue seem to indicate that support for the idea is almost exclusively consigned to the DUP camp. Reg Empey and other Ulster Unionist leaders have been less than enthusiastic about the idea. The question is why? A Unionist pact at Westminster level would certainly return the Unionist majority constituency of South Belfast to a Unionist candidate, you would imagine a prize like that (alone) would warrant such co-operation.
The Ulster Unionists are sceptical about the idea for a number of reasons, firstly they regard themselves as the historic Unionist political movement. The UUP view the DUP as the people who have divided Unionism, the notion that it is them, the DUP who want a united Unionism is ironic to say the least.
Secondly and far more interesting, is that after a decade of UUP electoral woe, life has been finally blown into the fragile remnants of the UUP. And they know it, the real reason why the Ulster Unionists are not grappling at the idea of united Unionism is simply because the UUP can smell blood, DUP blood, and after many a’ electoral hammering they want revenge.
The forced removal of Ian Paisley by his own, coupled with the emerging threat of Jim Allister and the disastrous Dromore by-election has panicked the DUP into realisation that their electoral supremacy within Unionism is under threat. If an election was to take place tomorrow the DUP would lose seats, and the likelihood is that they would be stung from both the centre and the right.
Many ‘progressive’ Unionists voters who traditionally voted Ulster Unionist but transferred their vote to the DUP after the Good Friday Agreement are ‘slightly’ annoyed that they were duped by Ian and Co. Because of this annoyance many of these middle class voters will return to the Ulster Unionists. ( Dromore was the first indication of this) What is also a fact, is that many of the fundamentalist element of the DUP base are deeply unhappy with the new power sharing arrangements. Depending on which political commentator you listen too, the DUP could lose between 20% - 30% of its voters. If this were to occur, than Jim and his Traditional Unionist Voice would have an electoral base and instead of uniting Unionism would split it three ways.
What this would do, is that it would ensure that Sinn Féin would emerge as the largest single party in the six counties, allowing Martin to assume the mantle of First Minister, a massive blow to Unionist morale and further erosion to the Union. Imagine the message that a statement like that would sent to the world.
The futures bright, but its certainly not orange.
4 comments:
Brillian article - very inciteful. The quality of the blog is ever increasing. Maith thu!
I think SF where wrong to nominate the DUP yesterday. With unionism increasingly fractured at the moment and no one on the nationalist side able to cap SF growth, republicanism would of have a huge triumph with Martin or Gerry as first minister.
Good article, very thought provoking, more people should read this blog and comment.
Joe
Did the UUP vote not drop by 9% in Dromore?
Hardly a swing back from the DUP. Correct me if I am wrong.
Thank You Orla for your comment, Yes you are correct that the UUP percentage did drop. How ever the first thing we must acknowledge is that this was a by-election and therefore turn out is generally lower than any other type of elections. Secondly DUP voters are more politically committed that their UUP counterparts so the election itself should have benefited the DUP.
The by-election was caused by the resignation of a UUP councillor Tyrone Howe. The Ulster Unionists hoped to simply co-opt a party colleague. However, the DUP believed that they could steal a seat through a by-election. The fact that the DUP did not win the seat sent shock waves throughout the DUP, their vote fell by a whopping 21.5%. I can't over emphasise this enough, every political commentator, Co. Down newspaper and Unionist blogs believed that the DUP would walk away with the seat. The fact that the Ulster Unionists held onto their seat (alone) is quite remarkable, and in my opinion is the first indication of a realignment with in Unionism.
Also if you look at the opinion pieces in Unionist newspapers you can see that attitudes are turning against the DUP, with many people indicating that they have changed to either TUV or returning to the Ulster Unionists.
In short I believe we will see a resurgence in the Ulster Unionists and the emergence of the TUV as a political force, that is, unless, the DUP manage to convince many of the hard-liners with in Unionism to continue to support them.
Thanks for the comment!
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